A recent CATalyst Council report, “Puppocalpyse, Kitten Craze and the Expectations Reset,” provides a possible reason for the U.S. veterinary industry’s fifth consecutive year of declining clinic visits and why that trend is likely to continue through 2035.
While kitten visits have remained strong since the pandemic, new puppy visits have declined annually since the COVID-era pet acquisition boom. Researchers report that first-year puppy visits have fallen to 62% of their 2018/2019 baseline.
The trend matters because first-year puppy and kitten visits establish each birth-year cohort. Once a cohort enters the veterinary system in smaller numbers, the impact can be felt throughout the lifetime of the pets. The analysis suggests that four consecutive below-baseline puppy cohorts will likely suppress canine veterinary visits for the next 13 to 14 years.
“The industry is generally planning for veterinary visits to return to 2% to 3% annual growth as soon as next year,” said Jon Ayers, chair of the CATalyst Council Market Insights Committee and the report’s lead author. “The demographics do not support that view. We put the realistic long-term range for U.S. clinical visit growth at -2% to 0% through 2030.”
In contrast, kitten visits experienced a strong pandemic increase and have remained about 8% to 10% above pre-pandemic levels during the past four years. However, this growth has not been sufficient to offset the decline in canine visits because cats account for less than one-third of total veterinary visits.
The report identified two possible contributors to the decline in puppy visits:
- Veterinary service inflation has outpaced general consumer inflation since the pandemic, potentially affecting demand for care.
- Rising single-family home prices may make dog ownership less attainable for younger pet owners.
Despite these findings, veterinary practices may be able to influence visit volume. Targeted marketing, particularly efforts to increase feline visits or encourage more frequent preventive care among existing patients, could help offset the projected declines.
“Cats are the one segment of this market that is growing, and the practices and groups that get serious about feline care now are the ones positioned for the next decade,” said Gina Fortunato, CATalyst Council’s executive director. “Feline-specific marketing and lower-stress, feline-friendly experiences are the largest organic growth opportunities most practices have.”
The report can be downloaded from the CATalyst Council’s website.