Imagine it is January 2020. The economy is purring like a content kitten. Unemployment, interest rates and inflation are running at historically low levels. And then, a global pandemic rocks our lives and the financial markets. By the end of March, the S&P 500 drops nearly 20% in value. Then, later in the year and in unprecedented time, a COVID vaccine is found, and the markets roar back, making up all the losses and posting a gain for the year.

Meanwhile:

• FAANG stocks (Meta Platforms, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet) soar before giving up a lot of gains.
• Meme stocks (Remember Gamestop?) shoot up and then fall.
• Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies jump to record highs and then crash.
• Inflation races to the highest levels most of us have experienced.
• Russia invades Ukraine, and geopolitical uncertainty intensifies.
• U.S. energy policy shifts on a dime, and gas prices soar.
• The Federal Reserve raises interest rates seven times in 2022.

Could you have predicted all that back in December 2019? Did anyone? What if you or someone had? What would you have done?

Again, imagine that in January 2020, your well-polished crystal ball predicted all those cataclysmic events. Despite the history about to unfold, would you also forecast that the Russell 3000 would average a return of 7% a year over the next three years? Would anyone believe you? Would you have the fortitude to stick to your investment plan and stay in the market?

How could all that happen? How did it happen? The answer is that markets responded to dramatic and rapidly changing events by doing their job of capturing the genius of human ingenuity embedded in the daily work of thousands of publicly traded companies worldwide.

Human ingenuity is powerful and enables us to change and adapt, especially during adverse circumstances. And that’s not all. Human creativity is more than a survival instinct; it is the desire to innovate and thrive. What is true of individuals also is true of companies. A company is a collection of individuals working together to survive, adapt, innovate and thrive.

Veterinarians understand the concept. Think of all the ways you shifted, adjusted and innovated your services, team and products to serve clients more effectively and profitably during the challenges of the past three years.

Does anyone believe the future will be less uncertain than the past? We hope you reach these conclusions:

• Uncertainty is the only certainty.
• Markets do their job amazingly well.
• You’re better off expecting markets to do their job versus trying to time them or reacting to uncertainty.

Now, how do those conclusions translate into a sound investment plan? In these three ways.

1. It Must Be Sensible and Based on Financial Science

If your investments are arranged based on the day’s headlines, you don’t have a plan. A proper investment plan isn’t reactionary to the financial press’s latest hyperventilation over “today’s numbers.” In the short term, wild swings up or down are common.

The stock market, measured on a daily basis, is down 45% of the time and up 55% of the time. Checking your account values five days a week is a fool’s game. Instead, try to focus on longer-term measures of the market.

Notice that in 75% of the one-year periods, the stock market is positive, which is what precisely happened from 2019 to 2022 — three years up and one year down. Admittedly, the pattern is rarely three consecutive positive years followed by one negative year. The lesson is that reacting to one negative year can cost you participation in the positive years that surely follow. Keep your focus on the long term.

The past three years tested whether you had a sensible investment plan worth sticking to. So think about why you did what you did, and then prepare for next time. The next three years might be just as uncertain.

Develop and stick to plans that take you through the short-term ups and downs of market fluctuations so you can capture the long-term benefits of human ingenuity. If you’re not confident about doing it, talk to a qualified financial adviser, preferably one who operates as a fiduciary and is a certified financial planner.

2. Make Sure Your Unique Situation Guides Your Plan

Teddy Roosevelt once said, “Comparison is the thief of joy.” Illustrating his point, Bob had two meetings recently with clients who, by all financial measure, would be considered highly successful. Both asked a variation of this question: “Our friends seem to be doing better than we are. Are we doing OK?”

That’s called comparative evaluation and is a debilitating way to live. The only valid comparison is to your financial goals and objectives — your financial plan. Do you have a written, personal and quantifiable financial life plan that is uniquely you? If not, you should have one because, without it, you’ll never know if you’re “doing OK.”

What are your short-, mid- and long-term financial goals?

• Reducing debt?
• Funding your children’s or grandchildren’s education?
• Stopping work cold turkey or gradually working (and earning) less?
• Living comfortably and enjoyably in retirement?
• Giving to your church or favorite charities?
• Making significant purchases, such as a boat, RV or second home?
• Paying for health care in retirement?
• Traveling?

Build your financial plan around your goals, priorities and timeframe. Don’t compare yourself to anyone else. If you’re on track, you’re where you need to be.

3. Account for Short-Term Uncertainty

Once you identify and quantify your financial goals, you can structure your investment portfolio accordingly. The three-bucket approach consists of:

• Short-term goals and needs: Bucket 1 is for the next two years. If your plan calls for expenditures that exceed income in the short term, those extra funds should be in cash or cash-equivalent accounts such as money markets or certificates of deposit. Segregating the funds provides peace of mind that Bucket 1 isn’t subject to short-term market volatility.
• Midterm goals and needs: Bucket 2 covers years three and four. Use a fixed-income portfolio (high-quality, short-duration bonds). Such a low-risk allocation historically provides a return exceeding inflation but without the volatility of stocks.
• Long-term goals and needs: Bucket 3 is the rest of your portfolio and won’t be needed for five years or more. You invest for growth, with an 80% to 100% allocation to stocks. The bucket will experience year-to-year volatility, but by staying patiently invested, you’ll be rewarded with returns that capital markets historically deliver.